The Winter Surge Is Real. Are Your Communities Ready?

Further's December Office Hours opened with a question that always comes up this time of year: How real is the winter surge—and how big is it, really?

If you’ve worked in Senior Living for even a season, you’ve heard about it. But this year, we brought the data. And the numbers aren’t just validating—they’re eye-opening.

Short answer: yes, the surge is real—and it’s bigger and earlier than most operators plan for.

The Data: Winter Isn’t a Bump. It’s a Wave.

Using data from 6,500+ communities, Further analyzed performance from October through February (2024 into 2025). Here’s what we found:

• 30–40% increase in phone calls
• 20–25% increase in website visits
• 30–35% increase in leads

As Matthew Grant from Markentum put it:

“After so many years of talking about the Winter Surge, it was great to see the proof that yes, it's real—and that it’s across website traffic, leads, and phone calls.”

And yet… in our live poll during Office Hours 52% of attendees said they aren’t doing anything differently for the holidays.

That means over half of operators are walking into the busiest, most emotionally charged demand window of the year with their normal playbook—and hoping for the best.

The Surge Starts Earlier Than You Think

A lot of teams still plan around “Big Monday”—that first Monday in January when phones light up.

But as Sonia Vachon, VP of Client Engagement at Further (and former senior living marketer), shared:

“I was always assuming the first Monday in January was our biggest surge. When I saw this data, I was pretty impressed at the lift starting much earlier than just January.”

Families start noticing changes at Thanksgiving. They see the struggle of hosting, the safety issues, the loneliness, the cognitive decline that’s easier to spot when everyone’s together.

They don’t just call on “Big Monday.” They:

• Start researching in December
• Visit your website
• Fill out a form
• Call after hours
• Talk themselves into “waiting until after the holidays”

The surge is a season, not a single day. If you only staff and plan for the first week of January, you’re leaving a lot of value—and a lot of families—on the table.

The Real Challenge: Volume + Emotion

The communities that win the winter surge aren’t just “busier.” They’re better prepared for more conversations that are also more emotional.

Families are wrestling with:

• “Is this Mom’s last Christmas at home?”
• “Are we taking something away by moving Dad now?”
• “We saw some scary declines this visit. What if we wait too long?”

That’s why your strategy has to do two things at once:

1. Handle the volume (so no lead falls through the cracks)
2. Support the emotion (so every interaction is empathetic and helpful)

Here’s how to do that—without burning out your teams.

3 Moves to Capture the Winter Surge (Without Burning Out Your Team)

1. Use AI and Automation Make Sure Every Inquiry Gets Answered

Families reach out when they finally have a moment: late at night, in between travel days, or while they’re quietly worried at the kitchen table.

You can’t afford to miss them.

Use AI and automation to:

• Capture leads on your website
  • AI chat to answer questions in real time
  • Conversational web forms that feel like a human exchange
  • Instant pricing + instant answers to FAQs
• Let families book tours on their schedule
  • Real calendar availability (not “someone will call you” forms)
  • Self-serve tour booking that works evenings, weekends, and holidays
• Cover the phones during the busiest season
  • AI phone agents that answer before calls roll to voicemail
  • Call tracking to understand where calls are coming from and what happens on them

Those calls represent some of your highest-intent prospects of the entire year. If they hit voicemail or a dead end, they often don’t try again—they call a competitor.

2. Turn the Surge Into a Pipeline, Not a Pile-Up

Not everyone is ready to move now. That doesn’t mean they’re not valuable.

This is where Senior Living Marketing Automation comes in:

• Speed-to-lead campaigns
  • Automated SMS + email that follow up instantly when a lead doesn’t book a tour
  • Different content for adult children vs. seniors themselves
  • Messaging that acknowledges what they just experienced over the holidays

• Cold-database re-engagement
  • Reach back out to qualified leads who haven’t engaged in 60–90 days
  • Use holiday-specific language and check-ins so you stay top of mind
  • Give them low-pressure ways to re-engage: content, guides, short calls, or tours

Matthew’s advice from the webinar was simple but critical: tools are only as good as the information and strategy behind them. Make sure:

• Your community info is complete and accurate
• Your calendars and availability are truly up to date
• Your campaigns are actually scheduled to run during the surge window

This isn’t about “doing email marketing.” It’s about building a system that catches and nurtures the surge for you while your teams handle the highest-value conversations.

3. Train Your Sales Team for Holiday Objections

“I think we’ll wait until after the holidays.”
“She wants one more Christmas at home.”
“It’s just not a good time right now.”

You hear those objections every year. The question is: are your sales directors prepared for them?

That’s where AI-powered sales training and role play can be a game changer:

• Simulate realistic holiday conversations (“we’re just researching for now,” “we’ll wait until January”)
• Give your team safe space to practice responses
• Provide instant scoring and feedback so they improve quickly

In one of our Office Hours examples, an AI training scenario coached a sales director through reframing “we’ll wait until after the holidays” into an opportunity to:

• Visit while the community is decorated and vibrant
• Let Mom experience real activities and meals
• Reduce the January rush by starting the process now

When teams practice these conversations before the surge peaks, they’re calmer, more confident, and far more effective when the real calls come in.

What to Do Next

If you want this winter surge to look different from last year’s, the time to act is now, not on “Big Monday.”

Here are your next steps:

• Watch the full Office Hours recording
  See the data breakdown, hear Sonia and Matthew’s full commentary, and get a deeper walkthrough of the campaigns and tools we discussed.
• Download the “Senior Holiday Marketing Toolkit”
  Get ready-made email templates, campaign ideas, and objection-handling examples you can plug into your systems quickly.

Use the winter surge for what it really is: a concentrated window when families are finally ready to talk about what they’ve been avoiding all year.

If you’re ready for it, everyone wins—your communities, your teams, and the families who need you most.

‍